retirement REVIEW |
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retirement pension forecasting teamIt would be great if we could all retire with a nice portfolio of savings and pension income, without having to worry about paying the bills most retired people pay.
The book really cant make up its mind whether it is for those saving for old age, or already in it and trying to decide how best to take their income. It tries to do both and falls short on both counts, but particularly the latter. There is little or no discussion of many things -such as bonds or zeros - if only to dismiss them. These are (albeit briefly) explored in the Motley Fool UK Investment Guide - where the section on 'Hermiones old age' was very informative. If ths present book could have used this as a starting point we could have learned much more. Likewise, there is little consideration of those already in their forties but with little or no investment. The book all to often assumes you are in the early stages of a career or at the end of it. Buy this book if you are a first timer to the Motley Fool - otherwise stick with the UK Investment Guide and wait for the second edition of Old Age.......
But if that sounds hard, don't worry. One of HTRR's strongest points is the wealth of wisdom it provides on the mental aspects of investing over the long term. What do you do if your portfolio tanks? What do you do if it soars? This is a problem? You'd be surprised! O'Shaughnessy is probably the only author with a completely rounded, mature outlook on the emotional aspects of investing. Reading HTRR will give you the confidence you need to invest and stay in the market through good times and bad. So how do you invest? O'Shaughnessy breaks it all down for you, telling you exactly what to do. We're not talking the usual vague, feelgood accepted wisdom here such as 'buy market leaders' or 'buy on weakness, sell on strength'. Throw all those books in the trash! HTRR will tell you how to quickly find the precise stocks you should buy. You'll finish the book at 2 o'clock and have a list of the stocks to buy in your hand at 2:30. Yes, it's just that easy. You'll also know exactly when to buy them (now) and when to sell them (a year from now), and what do after that (repeat the process until you retire). What could be simpler? O'Shaughnessy should be nominated for a Nobel Prize. He is a modern-day Charles Darwin with a theory that has all the hallmarks of a revolution in scientific thought. The theory is simple, but deceptively so. Many readers come away thinking they have understood it, only to later demonstrate that they clearly haven't. Even Motley Fool was apparently unable to grasp Reasonable Runaways (one of the strategies in HTRR). They tried to test it with a universe of stocks picked from Value Line (!). When it wasn't performing well after six months (!), they wondered how they could tweak it (!) to "make it dance" (their words). You'll understand just how ridiculous all of this is when you read HTRR. Perhaps the reason for this widespread misunderstanding is that while the theory itself is simple, its ramifications are not---and without understanding its ramifications, it is impossible to truly understand the theory. Like Darwin, O'Shaughnessy has taken 'God'---the human element---completely out of the picture. That's what readers find so hard to grasp. O'Shaughnessy has shown that not only is human intervention in portfolio management not necessary, it's downright harmful. Given enough time, any human intervention will only lower a portfolio's returns from the optimum returns that could be obtained using a simple model. I hesitate to include the returns I have earned over the past four years using the Reasonable Runaways strategy in this review, because I don't think they're typical. I have earned 93.15% (CARR of 17.88%) versus 1.17% (CARR of 0.29%) for the SP during the same period (July 15, 2001 to July 15, 2005). And this is during a time period that includes 9/11. But as you'll discover from reading HTRR, four years is a meaninglessly short amount of time over which to gauge performance. Also, giving out exciting returns numbers shifts the discussion away from the real message of the book---get in the stock market and stay there (investing properly of course). It's the only way you'll ever be able to retire, rich or otherwise. For UK readers, Ifd also like to point out that if you invest in the US stock market and live outside the UK (as I do), itfs tax-free. How can you go wrong?
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