retirement REVIEW |
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retirement pension forecastIt would be great if we could all retire with a nice portfolio of savings and pension income, without having to worry about paying the bills most retired people pay.
If you've read some of the Rich Dad, Poor Dad books before, the main new information in this book is an explanation of why stock market investing with pension money is a dangerous way to grow your "wealth." In addition to being at risk from con men, thieves, incompetents, brokerage houses and market volatility, you face the ticking time bomb of a growing number of U. S. investors being legally required to liquidate their holdings beginning at age 70 1/2. As the Baby Boom generation turns 70 1/2 beginning in 2016, the selling moves from being a trickle into being a torrent that overwhelms new funds into the market at some point . . . followed by an inevitable collapse in stock values. If you want a more detailed, confirming discussion of this issue, the book, What If Boomers Can't Retire?, is a good choice. Harry S. Dent, Jr.'s demographic books also look at this issue. If you already believe in the messages of the earlier books, you could skip this one . . . especially if you have already decided to avoid or minimize stock-market investments. If you have read none of the Rich Dad, Poor Dad series, I suggest that you start with Rich Dad, Poor Dad before tackling this one. You'll understand this book better if you do. The other problem with traditional defined contribution pension investing (usually by 401-k plans), of course, is that a pension fund contribution takes lots of cash out of your pocket (unless the employer matching is very generous -- way more than 2:1) to put some money into the retirement account. So you face the possibility of being much poorer in cash flow while you save for retirement investing and poorer when you cash out of the investment after you pay the taxes on what you take back in what could be smaller values. Imagine if you had had to start withdrawing from your pension fund in 1929. That's one nice illustration that I enjoyed in the book. Possibly, the same could occur after 2016. Who knows? The second half of the book advises you on how to build a financial ark against hard times by relying on building cash-generating businesses and investments (such as rental properties) after you achieve your financial education (which you didn't learn in school, even if you got a business degree from most schools). You are encouraged to start small and develop various kinds of control over your emotions, advisors and actions. It's all sound advice. My only complaint is that people who are going to start making real estate investments and building cash-generating businesses need a lot more information than is here. I graded the book down one star, accordingly. The first half of the book could have been shortened up quite a bit, but for those who are unaware of the demographic time bomb's potential effect on their investments, it may help to get the story in small doses. The surprise for a lot of people in this book is going to be that what they hear every day from best-selling "authorities" about the "right rules" of retirement investing could easily turn out to be wrong for them. After you absorb and begin to apply these lessons, I suggest that you think about where in your life the conventional wisdom led you down the wrong path. Where else could that be happening to you now?
Beginning with a personality assessment for the would-be expatriate, Knorr guides the reader through a step-by-step analysis of moving overseas. As the title implies, this is a book for adults who may be encumbered with houses, aging parents, life-long living patterns and other apparent obstacles to making a major life change. Knorr's cautious approach and practical information are designed to produce either a successful sojourn overseas or the avoidance of what might turn out to be an impulsive mistake.
I found this book to be vastly superior to 52 Weeks to Financial Fitness by Marshall Loeb, which was also written for people in this age category. Mr. Schwab's profits as author from this book are all being donated to the Charles Schwab Corporation Foundation to provide for the needs of seniors. The book is divided into two parts: First, planning for the rest of your life; and second, getting organized to implement that plan. The planning section is very well done because it covers materials at a level of perspective that goes from the needs of most beginners to handling the needs of all but the most sophisticated people. Fundamentals are covered in sidebars so as not to clutter-up the main text for those who do not need the information. The subjects covered include how much money you will need in total, determining the value of what you have available, estimating the gap between your needs and resources, understanding how to think about asset allocation in your investment funds, establishing the proper cash flow to match your needs, and readjusting your investment mix over time. Each section is clearly written and provides formats to make it easier for you to assemble and think about your information. I was particularly pleased to see Mr. Schwab challenge some conventional wisdom about financial planning. Many people use a rule of thumb that you will need 70% of your preretirement income. In practice, many people find that they spend more than that because some costs go up more rapidly than inflation, like medical care, or they take on new interests. Mr. Schwab suggests 90%. I think even that may not be conservative enough. I think a better assumption is to have the percentage grow over time, slowly. Eventually, it will probably exceed 100%. In addition, many people will tell you to plan on spending 6% of your assets each year after you have to start drawing on them. Mr. Schwab wisely suggests that 3-4% will be more appropriate for most people. I liked that advice very much. The advice on investing is much more conservative than you would expect from someone who heads an on-line brokerage house. But appropriately so. He suggests you stay in common stocks as long as possible, because you may well live much longer than you think. But he has all but 10% of your portfolio in either no-load index funds or conservative bond and cash positions. If you skip the idea of owning any individual stocks, the advice is quite appropriate for the average person. It also has you reducing your exposure to stocks over time, as the years appraoch when you will need the income. So even if stocks stop performing well (as some warn) in the next few years, you will be relatively safe. Part II of the book gets you into deciding whether you need a financial advisor or not, and how to select and work with one. It also looks at the most important questions about insurance, estate planning (get thee to a lawyer), and how to handle your donations so they bring you the most satisfaction and least after-tax cost. The book has several other nice qualities. It emphasizes the rest of your life as being the "second half" rather than the downhill slide or some other negative concept. In sports, we all know that the winners are usually those who play the second half the best. Also, at half-time, the coach often makes adjustments that lead to winning performance. It is a very nice metaphor for financial planning at this stage in life. "What do I want for the second half of my life?" is the key question posed in the beginning of the book for you to consider. I also liked the optimism of the book. Rather than focusing on the fear that people have about outliving their money, the book emphasizes the potential for good things to happen. You may live longer, and think of all the good things that could follow. "Anything is possible" was my favorite line from the book, which followed examples of wonderful accomplishments by seniors of advanced years. Unless you already have been through this exercise recently with a financial advisor, I suggest that you get the book and use the exercises. Further, I suggest you take even more time to think through the possibilities that the post child-rearing and tuition years may offer you. It's almost like getting to start over again, but with much more in the way of resources and wisdom. Look for and find the best choices!
1. The Pension Service - State Pension - State Pension forecast
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