retirement REVIEW |
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basic pension retirement |
early retirement taxIt would be great if we could all retire with a nice portfolio of savings and pension income, without having to worry about paying the bills most retired people pay.
But if that sounds hard, don't worry. One of HTRR's strongest points is the wealth of wisdom it provides on the mental aspects of investing over the long term. What do you do if your portfolio tanks? What do you do if it soars? This is a problem? You'd be surprised! O'Shaughnessy is probably the only author with a completely rounded, mature outlook on the emotional aspects of investing. Reading HTRR will give you the confidence you need to invest and stay in the market through good times and bad. So how do you invest? O'Shaughnessy breaks it all down for you, telling you exactly what to do. We're not talking the usual vague, feelgood accepted wisdom here such as 'buy market leaders' or 'buy on weakness, sell on strength'. Throw all those books in the trash! HTRR will tell you how to quickly find the precise stocks you should buy. You'll finish the book at 2 o'clock and have a list of the stocks to buy in your hand at 2:30. Yes, it's just that easy. You'll also know exactly when to buy them (now) and when to sell them (a year from now), and what do after that (repeat the process until you retire). What could be simpler? O'Shaughnessy should be nominated for a Nobel Prize. He is a modern-day Charles Darwin with a theory that has all the hallmarks of a revolution in scientific thought. The theory is simple, but deceptively so. Many readers come away thinking they have understood it, only to later demonstrate that they clearly haven't. Even Motley Fool was apparently unable to grasp Reasonable Runaways (one of the strategies in HTRR). They tried to test it with a universe of stocks picked from Value Line (!). When it wasn't performing well after six months (!), they wondered how they could tweak it (!) to "make it dance" (their words). You'll understand just how ridiculous all of this is when you read HTRR. Perhaps the reason for this widespread misunderstanding is that while the theory itself is simple, its ramifications are not---and without understanding its ramifications, it is impossible to truly understand the theory. Like Darwin, O'Shaughnessy has taken 'God'---the human element---completely out of the picture. That's what readers find so hard to grasp. O'Shaughnessy has shown that not only is human intervention in portfolio management not necessary, it's downright harmful. Given enough time, any human intervention will only lower a portfolio's returns from the optimum returns that could be obtained using a simple model. I hesitate to include the returns I have earned over the past four years using the Reasonable Runaways strategy in this review, because I don't think they're typical. I have earned 93.15% (CARR of 17.88%) versus 1.17% (CARR of 0.29%) for the SP during the same period (July 15, 2001 to July 15, 2005). And this is during a time period that includes 9/11. But as you'll discover from reading HTRR, four years is a meaninglessly short amount of time over which to gauge performance. Also, giving out exciting returns numbers shifts the discussion away from the real message of the book---get in the stock market and stay there (investing properly of course). It's the only way you'll ever be able to retire, rich or otherwise. For UK readers, Ifd also like to point out that if you invest in the US stock market and live outside the UK (as I do), itfs tax-free. How can you go wrong?
1. Get rich by scrimping and saving (eg, "The Money Diet") The automatic millionaire is very much of the first flavour (scrimping and saving). In fairness, the author does a good job of disguising the fact that his approach amounts to little more than scrimping and saving by making his particular process "automatic" (I won't spoil the book too much by explaining what that means). At the start of the book, the author describes a meeting he once once had with a couple of retired automatic millionaires, whose names escape me. He describes in depth how happy this married couple were now that they had held down steady (apparently low paid) jobs all their lives and were now reaping the benifits of many decades of savings and conservative investments. We learn about how they have two homes (one that they live in and one that they rent out) and how the husband drives a second hand car. We also are reminded over and over about how joyful and full of romance and wide eyed wonder this ageing couple seem to be now that they're cashing on their healthy pension schemes. Whilst, I do not question that the automatic millionaire process has clearly paid off for these people, I was struck with a distinct feeling of disappointment as I read their story. Personally speaking, I find it very difficult to get excited about the idea of saving for the rest of my working life in the hope that I can life off a pension some day and drive second hand cars, like our happy couple described in the book. For me, this couple were precise examples of how I absolutely do NOT want to end up- maybe my expectations were too high going into this book! Anyway, for what it's worth I have one or two other issues with the book that are of a slightly more academic nature. Although I'm no economics professor, I have read credible predictions of an impending stock market crash in the future when a tidal wave of elderly retired workers try to cash in on their pension schemes. Here in the UK, the government is on the verge of forcing everyone into signing up for pensions schemes. You don't have to be a mathematical genius to realise that the figures don't add up- surely we can't ALL get 10% interest rates on our pensions, as the author insists we can. Can we? I also think that his approach is dependant on you and I being able to generate a steady income (i.e., hold down stable jobs) until we retire in our fifties and sixties. Again, without trying to lecture too much or sound too negative, I think we live in an age where life long job security is something that is no longer on the table. So, personally I would put the case that the automatic millionaire process may not be as stable and as surefire as the author would lead us to believe. Anyway, on a more positive note, the book is very well written and the author does a great job of keeping the subject both interesting and educational. In particular some of the mathematic models he presents are extremely eye opening and well presented. In conclusion I would say this is a good book is you're a conservative, non risk taking, worker ant. However, for a faster, more exciting and (admittedly!) more risky road to richness I would be tempted to look elsewhere.
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